AI Weather Forecast for Farmers: Monsoon Alerts in India
India now sends farmers an AI weather forecast for the monsoon. In 2025, AI onset forecasts reached 3.88 crore farmers by SMS, up to four weeks ahead, and 31 to 52 percent of surveyed farmers changed sowing plans. Since May 2026, IMD issues block-level AI forecasts every Wednesday for 3,196 blocks.
For a rainfed farmer, the single most expensive guess of the year is when to sow. Sow too early and a dry spell kills the seedlings; too late and the crop misses the rain. A normal weather forecast for farmers covers a few days. AI has made it possible to forecast the start of the monsoon, locally, weeks in advance, and India is now sending those forecasts to farmers' phones.
Monsoon clouds over farms in Chinawal village, Maharashtra. Photo: Abhi, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.
What the AI monsoon forecast did in 2025
For the 2025 kharif season, the Ministry of Agriculture ran its first AI-based local monsoon onset forecast. According to PIB and the government's February 2026 note on AI in agriculture:
- Who got it: 3.88 crore farmers in 13 states, by SMS through the government's mKisan portal.
- Languages: Hindi, Odia, Marathi, Bangla and Punjabi.
- How far ahead: up to four weeks, with updates every week until continuous rain reached each area.
- How it was made: a blend of Google's NeuralGCM, the European weather centre's AI model AIFS, and 125 years of IMD rainfall records, with the Development Innovation Lab-India.
- Did it help? Surveys in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar found 31 to 52 percent of farmers changed their land preparation or sowing time because of it.
What changed in 2026: IMD's block-level AI forecast
On 12 May 2026, IMD made AI forecasting a regular service. Per Business Standard's report of the launch, its new model forecasts the monsoon's onset for each block, not each state:
| 2026 IMD block-level forecast | |
|---|---|
| Coverage | 3,196 blocks in 15 states and 1 Union Territory, mostly rainfed areas |
| How often | Every Wednesday |
| How far ahead | Up to four weeks |
| Error margin | About four days |
| How it reaches farmers | Ministry of Agriculture systems and AgriStack |
A separate pilot from the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting gives rainfall forecasts on a 1 km grid, up to 10 days ahead, for Uttar Pradesh, down from a 12.5 km grid before.
Where to get a weather forecast for farmers in India
- SMS. The 2025 forecasts went out by SMS through the government's mKisan portal. Keeping your mobile number updated in PM-KISAN and your land records is the best way to stay reachable.
- Call 155261. Bharat-VISTAAR, the government's AI phone service, gives IMD weather in Hindi or English from any phone. Our Bharat-VISTAAR guide explains it.
- The Meghdoot app. Built by IMD, IITM and ICAR, it is not an AI forecast but carries district crop advisories, issued every Tuesday and Friday, with five days of weather. CGIAR reported in 2024 that it offers 12 languages.
August monsoon clouds over farms in West Bengal. Photo: Abhijit Kar Gupta, CC BY 2.0, via Wikimedia Commons, cropped.
How to read a probabilistic forecast
The AI forecast is a chance, not a promise. A message that the monsoon is "likely" in your block next week means it is more likely than not, not certain. Use it this way:
- Prepare land early when the forecast says onset is two to four weeks away; that work is not wasted if rain is late.
- Hold seed until the rain is steady, since IMD's own model can be off by about four days and its onset definition needs a continuous spell, not one shower.
- Watch the weekly update. The forecast changes as the date gets closer; the latest Wednesday message beats last week's.
Limits to keep in mind
Block-level is not field-level: hills and rivers can make your field differ from the block average. Forecasts are weakest for sudden local storms. And the 2026 service reaches the 3,196 covered blocks first, so check whether yours is one of them through your agriculture office.
For crop health between rains, satellite services such as Farmonaut watch your field from space, and our overview of AI in agriculture in India covers the government's other free tools, including pest identification in our plant disease app guide. WION's report on the 2026 launch is on YouTube.
FAQ
Which is the best weather app for farmers in India?
For district crop advice, IMD's free Meghdoot app, with advisories every Tuesday and Friday. For the monsoon's start, the government's AI onset forecasts by SMS and the Bharat-VISTAAR line, 155261, are the best free options.
How do farmers get the AI monsoon forecast?
In 2025 they went out by SMS through the government's mKisan portal, and in 2026 through Ministry of Agriculture services and AgriStack. Keep your mobile number updated in PM-KISAN and your land records.
How accurate is the AI monsoon forecast?
IMD gives an error margin of about four days for its 2026 block-level onset model. In 2025, 31 to 52 percent of surveyed farmers in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar changed their plans because of the forecast.
What is a block-level weather forecast?
A forecast made for each administrative block rather than a whole state or district. IMD's 2026 AI system covers 3,196 blocks in 15 states and one Union Territory.
Is the Meghdoot app free?
Yes. Meghdoot is a free app from IMD, IITM and ICAR, available on the Google Play Store and App Store.
Related tools
Farmonaut
Satellite crop monitoring priced per hectare, from $4.99 a month.
FarmerChat
Free generative-AI farming assistant built for Indian smallholders.